A clinical risk model for assessing the survival of patients with stage IA–IIA non-small cell lung cancer after surgery

BACKGROUND: The survival of patients with stage IA–IIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after surgery is heterogeneous. This study aimed to construct a prognostic risk model to predict the overall survival (OS) of these patients. METHODS: Data from patients (n=9,914) from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed. The cases were randomly divided into the training and the validation groups. Patients from the Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital (n=270) were also included as an external cohort. Independent significant factors affecting survival in the training cohort were used to construct a nomogram. The precision was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. The X-tile software was used to confirm the optimal cut-off value to classify the patients. RESULTS: Sex, age at diagnosis, tumor size, visceral pleura invasion (VPI), tumor grade, and the number of examined lymph nodes were deemed independent prognostic factors and were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-indices of the nomogram for predicting OS were 0.671 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.653–0.689] in the training group, and 0.668 (95% CI: 0.650–0.687) and 0.707 (95% CI: 0.651–0.763) in the validation and the testing groups, respectively. The cut-off value of risk points was 106.0, which stratified the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The high-risk patients had shorter 5-year OS than low-risk patients (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The established nomogram could evaluate the survival in patients with stage IA–IIA NSCLC after surgery and may provide prognostic information for clinicians to make decisions in the management of adjuvant therapy.