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Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death

The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its variants have devastated communities worldwide, and as the highly transmissible Omicron variant becomes the dominant strain of the virus in late 2021, the need to characterize and understand the difference between the new variant and its predecessors has been an...

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Autores principales: Hilal, Waleed, Chislett, Michael G., Snider, Brett, McBean, Edward A., Yawney, John, Gadsden, S. Andrew
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9748260/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36530359
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/frai.2022.927203
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author Hilal, Waleed
Chislett, Michael G.
Snider, Brett
McBean, Edward A.
Yawney, John
Gadsden, S. Andrew
author_facet Hilal, Waleed
Chislett, Michael G.
Snider, Brett
McBean, Edward A.
Yawney, John
Gadsden, S. Andrew
author_sort Hilal, Waleed
collection PubMed
description The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its variants have devastated communities worldwide, and as the highly transmissible Omicron variant becomes the dominant strain of the virus in late 2021, the need to characterize and understand the difference between the new variant and its predecessors has been an increasing priority for public health authorities. Artificial Intelligence has played a significant role in the analysis of various facets of COVID-19 since the early stages of the pandemic. This study proposes the use of AI, specifically an XGBoost model, to quantify the impact of various medical risk factors (or “population features”) on the possibility of a patient outcome resulting in hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. The results are compared between the Delta and Omicron COVID-19 variants. Results indicated that older age and an unvaccinated patient status most consistently correspond as the most significant population features contributing to all three scenarios (hospitalization, ICU, death). The top 15 features for each variant-outcome scenario were determined, which most frequently included diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and complications of pneumonia as highly significant population features contributing to serious illness outcomes. The Delta/Hospitalization model returned the highest performance metric scores for the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), F1, and Recall, while Omicron/ICU and Omicron/Hospitalization had the highest accuracy and precision values, respectively. The recall was found to be above 0.60 in most cases (with only two exceptions), indicating that the total number of false positives was generally minimized (accounting for more of the people who would theoretically require medical care).
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spelling pubmed-97482602022-12-15 Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death Hilal, Waleed Chislett, Michael G. Snider, Brett McBean, Edward A. Yawney, John Gadsden, S. Andrew Front Artif Intell Artificial Intelligence The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its variants have devastated communities worldwide, and as the highly transmissible Omicron variant becomes the dominant strain of the virus in late 2021, the need to characterize and understand the difference between the new variant and its predecessors has been an increasing priority for public health authorities. Artificial Intelligence has played a significant role in the analysis of various facets of COVID-19 since the early stages of the pandemic. This study proposes the use of AI, specifically an XGBoost model, to quantify the impact of various medical risk factors (or “population features”) on the possibility of a patient outcome resulting in hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. The results are compared between the Delta and Omicron COVID-19 variants. Results indicated that older age and an unvaccinated patient status most consistently correspond as the most significant population features contributing to all three scenarios (hospitalization, ICU, death). The top 15 features for each variant-outcome scenario were determined, which most frequently included diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and complications of pneumonia as highly significant population features contributing to serious illness outcomes. The Delta/Hospitalization model returned the highest performance metric scores for the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), F1, and Recall, while Omicron/ICU and Omicron/Hospitalization had the highest accuracy and precision values, respectively. The recall was found to be above 0.60 in most cases (with only two exceptions), indicating that the total number of false positives was generally minimized (accounting for more of the people who would theoretically require medical care). Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-11-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9748260/ /pubmed/36530359 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/frai.2022.927203 Text en Copyright © 2022 Hilal, Chislett, Snider, McBean, Yawney and Gadsden. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Artificial Intelligence
Hilal, Waleed
Chislett, Michael G.
Snider, Brett
McBean, Edward A.
Yawney, John
Gadsden, S. Andrew
Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title_full Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title_fullStr Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title_full_unstemmed Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title_short Use of AI to assess COVID-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, ICU, and death
title_sort use of ai to assess covid-19 variant impacts on hospitalization, icu, and death
topic Artificial Intelligence
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9748260/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36530359
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/frai.2022.927203
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