The cost of inaction on physical inactivity to public health-care systems: a population-attributable fraction analysis

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions. We aimed to estimate the public health-care costs associated with these diseases because of physical inactivity, which will help policy makers to prioritise investment in policy actions to promote and enable more people to be more active. METHODS: We used a population-attributable fraction formula to estimate the direct public health-care costs of NCDs and mental health conditions for 2020–30. The disease outcomes that we included were incident cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cancer (breast, colon, bladder, endometrial, oesophageal, gastric, and renal), dementia, and depression in adults aged at least 18 years. We used the most recent health and economic data evidence available for 194 countries. FINDINGS: 499·2 million new cases of preventable major NCDs would occur globally by 2030 if the prevalence of physical inactivity does not change, with direct health-care costs of INT$520 billion. The global cost of inaction on physical inactivity would reach approximately $47·6 billion per year. Although 74% of new cases of NCDs would occur in low-income and middle-countries, high-income countries would bear a larger proportion (63%) of the economic costs. The cost of treatment and management of NCDs varied—although dementia accounted for only 3% of new preventable NCDs, the disease corresponded to 22% of all costs; type 2 diabetes accounted for 2% of new preventable cases but 9% of all costs; and cancers accounted for 1% of new preventable cases but 15% of all costs. INTERPRETATION: This health and economic burden of physical inactivity is avoidable. Further investments in and implementation of known and effective policy interventions will support countries to reach the Sustainable Development Goal of reduction of NCD mortality by 2030. FUNDING: None.