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Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to construct and validate a predictive model for the risk of hypocalcemia following parathyroidectomy (PTX) for the treatment of secondary(renal) hyperparathyroidism (SHPT). METHODS: Information regarding patients with SHPT who underwent PTX between January 2019 and April 2022 wa...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9748676/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36531501 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1040264 |
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author | Cheng, Jingning Lv, Yong Zhang, Ling Liu, Yafeng |
author_facet | Cheng, Jingning Lv, Yong Zhang, Ling Liu, Yafeng |
author_sort | Cheng, Jingning |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: We aimed to construct and validate a predictive model for the risk of hypocalcemia following parathyroidectomy (PTX) for the treatment of secondary(renal) hyperparathyroidism (SHPT). METHODS: Information regarding patients with SHPT who underwent PTX between January 2019 and April 2022 was collected retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for hypocalcemia following PTX and to construct predictive models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, and the clinical decision curve (decision curve analysis, DCA) were used to assess the discrimination, calibration, and level of clinical benefit obtained using the predictive models. RESULTS: We studied 238 patients who were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to a training group (n=166) and a test group (n=72). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, in which three variables (the circulating parathyroid hormone (PTH) and Ca concentrations, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity) were interrogated for possible roles as independent risk factors for hypocalcemia in patients with SHPT who undergo PTX, and used to construct predictive models. The AUCs for the constructed models were high for both the training (0.903) and test (0.948) groups. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the incidence of postoperative hypocalcemia estimated using the predictive model and the actual incidence. The DCA curve indicated that the predictive model performed well. CONCLUSION: A predictive model constructed using a combination of preoperative PTH, Ca, and ALP may represent a useful means of identifying patients with SHPT at high risk of developing hypocalcemia following PTX in clinical practice. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9748676 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97486762022-12-15 Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism Cheng, Jingning Lv, Yong Zhang, Ling Liu, Yafeng Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Endocrinology OBJECTIVE: We aimed to construct and validate a predictive model for the risk of hypocalcemia following parathyroidectomy (PTX) for the treatment of secondary(renal) hyperparathyroidism (SHPT). METHODS: Information regarding patients with SHPT who underwent PTX between January 2019 and April 2022 was collected retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for hypocalcemia following PTX and to construct predictive models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, and the clinical decision curve (decision curve analysis, DCA) were used to assess the discrimination, calibration, and level of clinical benefit obtained using the predictive models. RESULTS: We studied 238 patients who were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to a training group (n=166) and a test group (n=72). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, in which three variables (the circulating parathyroid hormone (PTH) and Ca concentrations, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity) were interrogated for possible roles as independent risk factors for hypocalcemia in patients with SHPT who undergo PTX, and used to construct predictive models. The AUCs for the constructed models were high for both the training (0.903) and test (0.948) groups. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the incidence of postoperative hypocalcemia estimated using the predictive model and the actual incidence. The DCA curve indicated that the predictive model performed well. CONCLUSION: A predictive model constructed using a combination of preoperative PTH, Ca, and ALP may represent a useful means of identifying patients with SHPT at high risk of developing hypocalcemia following PTX in clinical practice. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-11-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9748676/ /pubmed/36531501 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1040264 Text en Copyright © 2022 Cheng, Lv, Zhang and Liu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Endocrinology Cheng, Jingning Lv, Yong Zhang, Ling Liu, Yafeng Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title | Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title_full | Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title_fullStr | Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title_full_unstemmed | Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title_short | Construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
title_sort | construction and validation of a predictive model for hypocalcemia after parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism |
topic | Endocrinology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9748676/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36531501 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1040264 |
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