Clinical staging and the differential risks for clinical and functional outcomes in young people presenting for youth mental health care

BACKGROUND: Clinical staging proposes that youth-onset mental disorders develop progressively, and that active treatment of earlier stages should prevent progression to more severe disorders. This retrospective cohort study examined the longitudinal relationships between clinical stages and multiple clinical and functional outcomes within the first 12 months of care. METHODS: Demographic and clinical information of 2901 young people who accessed mental health care at age 12–25 years was collected at predetermined timepoints (baseline, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months). Initial clinical stage was used to define three fixed groups for analyses (stage 1a: ‘non-specific anxious or depressive symptoms’, 1b: ‘attenuated mood or psychotic syndromes’, 2+: ‘full-threshold mood or psychotic syndromes’). Logistic regression models, which controlled for age and follow-up time, were used to compare clinical and functional outcomes (role and social function, suicidal ideation, alcohol and substance misuse, physical health comorbidity, circadian disturbances) between staging groups within the initial 12 months of care. RESULTS: Of the entire cohort, 2093 young people aged 12–25 years were followed up at least once over the first 12 months of care, with 60.4% female and a baseline mean age of 18.16 years. Longitudinally, young people at stage 2+ were more likely to develop circadian disturbances (odds ratio [OR]=2.58; CI 1.60–4.17), compared with individuals at stage 1b. Additionally, stage 1b individuals were more likely to become disengaged from education/employment (OR=2.11, CI 1.36–3.28), develop suicidal ideations (OR=1.92; CI 1.30–2.84) and circadian disturbances (OR=1.94, CI 1.31–2.86), compared to stage 1a. By contrast, we found no relationship between clinical stage and the emergence of alcohol or substance misuse and physical comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The differential rates of emergence of poor clinical and functional outcomes between early versus late clinical stages support the clinical staging model's assumptions about illness trajectories for mood and psychotic syndromes. The greater risk of progression to poor outcomes in those who present with more severe syndromes may be used to guide specific intervention packages. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02666-w.