Accuracy of a Risk Alert Threshold for ICU Hypoglycemia: Retrospective Analysis of Alert Performance and Association With Clinical Deterioration Events

To quantify the accuracy of and clinical events associated with a risk alert threshold for impending hypoglycemia during ICU admissions. DESIGN: Retrospective electronic health record review of clinical events occurring greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after the hypoglycemia risk alert threshold was met. SETTING: Adult ICU admissions from June 2020 through April 2021 at the University of Virginia Medical Center. PATIENTS: Three hundred forty-two critically ill adults that were 63.5% male with median age 60.8 years, median weight 79.1 kg, and median body mass index of 27.5 kg/m(2). INTERVENTIONS: Real-world testing of our validated predictive model as a clinical decision support tool for ICU hypoglycemia. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed 350 hypothetical alerts that met inclusion criteria for analysis. The alerts correctly predicted 48 cases of level 1 hypoglycemia that occurred greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after the alert threshold was met (positive predictive value = 13.7%). Twenty-one of these 48 cases (43.8%) involved level 2 hypoglycemia. Notably, three myocardial infarctions, one medical emergency team call, 19 deaths, and 20 arrhythmias occurred greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after an alert threshold was met. CONCLUSIONS: Alerts generated by a validated ICU hypoglycemia prediction model had a positive predictive value of 13.7% for real-world hypoglycemia events. This proof-of-concept result suggests that the predictive model offers clinical value, but further prospective testing is needed to confirm this.