Estimated glucose disposal rate and risk of cardiovascular disease: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies had reported that insulin resistance (assessed by estimated glucose disposal rate; eGDR) was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular events (CVD) in diabetes patients. The aim of present study was to investigate the potential association between eGDR and CVD in general population. METHODS: The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study with 8,267 individuals were included in analysis. Participants were divided into four subgroups according to eGDR quartile. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations of eGDR with CVD (stroke or cardiac events). RESULTS: During 6 years of follow-up, a total of 1,476 respondents experienced a CVD (494 stroke and 1,110 cardiac events). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, the corresponding hazard ratio (95% confidence intervals) for the highest eGDR versus lowest quartile of eGDR was 0.58(0.49–0.67) for CVD. Each 1-SD increase of eGDR was associated with 16% (HRs = 0.84; 0.79–0.88) decreased risk of CVD. There was also a significant linear association between eGDR and CVD (P for linearity < 0.001). Similar associations were also found between eGDR and stroke and cardiac events. CONCLUSION: A higher eGDR (a measure of insulin resistance) was associated with a decreased risk of CVD, stroke and cardiac events in general Chinese population, suggesting that eGDR could be considered as a preferential predictor and treatment target of CVD. Future well-designed prospective clinical studies are needed to verify our findings and to assess the effect of eGDR interventions in CVD prevention and therapy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03689-x.