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Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times()

We construct a new newspaper-based sentiment indicator for Spain that allows to monitor economic activity in real-time. As opposed to survey-based confidence indicators that are released at the end of the month, our indicator can be constructed on a daily basis. We compare our index with the popular...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Aguilar, Pablo, Ghirelli, Corinna, Pacce, Matías, Urtasun, Alberto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9754320/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36540696
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109730
Descripción
Sumario:We construct a new newspaper-based sentiment indicator for Spain that allows to monitor economic activity in real-time. As opposed to survey-based confidence indicators that are released at the end of the month, our indicator can be constructed on a daily basis. We compare our index with the popular Economic Sentiment Indicator of the European Commission and show that ours performs significantly better in nowcasting the Spanish GDP. Moreover, it proves to be helpful to predict the current COVID-19 recession from an earlier date.