Climate and socio-economic factors drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of HFRS in Northeastern China

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occurs widely in Northeastern China, but the mechanism and interactions of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the transmission of HFRS are still largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: We explored the effects of socioeconomic-environmental facto...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wang, Yanding, Wei, Xianyu, Xiao, Xuyang, Yin, Wenwu, He, Junyu, Ren, Zhoupeng, Li, Zhiqiang, Yang, Meitao, Tong, Shilu, Guo, Yuming, Zhang, Wenyi, Wang, Yong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Research Paper
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9754969/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36532667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100466
Descripción
Sumario:BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occurs widely in Northeastern China, but the mechanism and interactions of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the transmission of HFRS are still largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: We explored the effects of socioeconomic-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Northeastern China. Specifically, the relative importance and contribution rates (CR) of determinants of HFRS were identified by boosted regression tree and variance partitioning analysis, respectively. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to explain the roles of climatic and socio-economic factors in the transmission of HFRS. And a negative binomial regression was used to identify the risk effect between monthly meteorological variables and HFRS with 0–6 months lags in Northeastern China. RESULTS: Over the past decades, the high-risk areas of HFRS were mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern areas of Northeastern China. Additionally, HFRS mainly presented a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019 in most areas of Northeastern China, but slightly increased in the cities of Daqing, Songyuan, Baicheng, and Tonghua. The temporal dynamics of the incidence of HFRS were primarily explained by the variations in population density (CR = 27.30%), climate (CR = 13.30%), and economic condition(CR = 1.90%). The spatial variations of HFRS were medicated by the climate (CR = 16.95%) and population density (CR = 9.45%) and medical health care (CR = 2.25%). The SEM models indicated that humid and warm climates were conducive to the incidence and increase of HFRS, but the improvement in education and an increase in population density reduced the transmission of HFRS. CONCLUSION: Climate and population density appeared to mediate the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS in Northeastern China. These findings may provide valuable empirical evidence for the management of HFRS in endemic areas.

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