Quantitative CT evaluation after two cycles of induction chemotherapy to predict prognosis of patients with locally advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma before undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the performance of quantitative CT analysis in predicting the prognosis of patients with locally advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after two cycles of induction chemotherapy before definitive chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy. METHODS: A total of 110 patients with locally advanced ESCC were retrospectively analysed. Baseline chest CT and CT after two cycles of induction chemotherapy were analysed. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression model was used to identify independent prognostic markers for survival analysis. Then, a CT scoring system was established. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method were employed for analysing the prognostic value of the CT scoring system. RESULTS: Body mass index, treatment strategy, change ratios of thickness (ΔTH(max)), CT value of the primary tumour (ΔCTV(axial)) and the short diameter (ΔSD-LN), and the presence of an enlarged small lymph node (ESLN) after two cycles of chemotherapy were noted as independent factors for predicting overall survival (OS). The specificity of the presence of ESLN for death after 12 months was up to 100%. Areas under the curve value of the CT scoring system for predicting OS and progression-free survival (PFS) were higher than that of the RECIST (p < 0.05). Responders had significantly longer OS and PFS than non-responders. CONCLUSION: Quantitative CT analysis after two cycles of induction chemotherapy could predict the outcome of locally advanced ESCC patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy. The CT scoring system could contribute to the development of an appropriate strategy for patients with locally advanced ESCC. KEY POINTS: • Quantitative CT evaluation after two cycles of induction chemotherapy can predict the long-term outcome of locally advanced oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy. • A CT scoring system provides valuable imaging support for indicating the prognosis at the early stage of therapy. • Quantitative CT evaluation can assist clinicians in personalising treatment plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-08994-y.