Trend analyses of electricity load changes in Brazil due to COVID-19 shutdowns

This study aims to calculate and assess the electricity load trends for Brazil and its geographic regions, considering the changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint software, and the analysis comprehended the period between January 1 and September 29, 2020. Daily load data were grouped into weeks, with the calculation of weekly percentage changes considering a 95% confidence interval and p<0.05. The weekly electricity loads were compared in the periods before and after physical distancing decrees were enforced in Brazil (March 15, 2020). The decreases were different across the regions: the South subsystem presented the highest drop, with -19% when comparing the medians before and after implementation of the physical distancing measures. The Southeast and Northeast regions accompanied the decline, with decreases of -15% and -14% , respectively. The North region, however, has almost returned to initial levels, with a decrement of -3%.