Impact of COVID-19 on dispatch and capacity plan: A case study for Bangladesh

COVID-19 highlights impact of sudden and sustained periods of low demand that may have major ramifications for financial viability of utilities. However, these effects may be mitigated to some extent through efficient management of dispatch, adjustment of capital outlay for committed capacity and provides an opportunity to reshape longer term capacity development. These issues are particularly critical for developing countries like Bangladesh where the demand shock was acute from avg. 10 % per-annum (pa) to (−)12 % over April-June 2020. This analysis shows how Bangladesh can significantly curtail expensive liquid fuel based generation dispatch, eliminate the use of expensive peaking capacity and even delay some of its capacity addition for the intervening period up to 2025. Prospects of using Battery storage to manage evening peak at the wholesale level have been explored in the analysis and it demonstrates such investments in the present demand scenario is not economic. On the other hand, a more balanced import-export regime with neighboring countries may be beneficial to manage the seasonal capacity surplus that is likely to grow over the next five years.