Dynamic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the regional express logistics: Evidence from China

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic brings huge consequences on the global economy and health. Diverse restrictive policies have been enforced to prevent the novel Coronavirus from spreading. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the express logistics companies transport essential goods among different regions in China, supporting people's normal lives. This study explores the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 epidemic on the intra-provincial and inter-provincial express parcel flows based on the statistical and econometric analysis considering the individual-specific effects of each province. The key results obtained from the unique long-run panel data analysis are: (1) the temporal fluctuation of inter-provincial express logistics flows affected by the epidemic is stronger than that of intra-provincial flows, both of which also show significant spatial heterogeneity; (2) the process of China's fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic is divided into four stages according to the severity of pandemic and implications of restrictive policies, which have moderating effects for the impacts on the express logistics; (3) the dynamic effects of the pandemic on the express logistics are obviously heterogeneous in different stages, confirming the effectiveness of restrictive and support policies; (4) the delayed effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the regional express logistics vary with different setting of time lags. In the short term, the typical restrictive policies and Chinese Spring Festival holidays have significant negative effects on the express logistics. In the long term, the resumption of work and production stimulate the demands of express logistics, presenting significant positive effects in post-epidemic era. This study can provide the policy implications for the logistics planning and management under the public health intervention.