Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth

This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets be...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gupta, Rangan, Sheng, Xin, Balcilar, Mehmet, Ji, Qiang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9760394/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36568733
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823
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author Gupta, Rangan
Sheng, Xin
Balcilar, Mehmet
Ji, Qiang
author_facet Gupta, Rangan
Sheng, Xin
Balcilar, Mehmet
Ji, Qiang
author_sort Gupta, Rangan
collection PubMed
description This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs.
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spelling pubmed-97603942022-12-19 Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth Gupta, Rangan Sheng, Xin Balcilar, Mehmet Ji, Qiang Financ Res Lett Article This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs. Elsevier Inc. 2021-07 2020-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC9760394/ /pubmed/36568733 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Gupta, Rangan
Sheng, Xin
Balcilar, Mehmet
Ji, Qiang
Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title_full Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title_fullStr Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title_full_unstemmed Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title_short Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
title_sort time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9760394/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36568733
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823
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AT jiqiang timevaryingimpactofpandemicsonglobaloutputgrowth

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