Investigating the relationship between self-perception of fracture risk and prior fracture: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Self-perceived risk of fracture (SPR) is associated with fracture independent of FRAX calculated risk. To understand this better we considered whether lifestyle factors not included in the FRAX algorithm and psychosocial factors (social isolation, self-efficacy, or mental health status) explain the relationship between SPR and fracture. METHODS: We studied 146 UK community-dwelling older adults from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. SPR ranked as ‘lower’, ‘similar’ and ‘higher’ relative to others of the same age, was assessed by questionnaire. Social isolation was assessed using the six-item Lubben Social Network Scale; self-efficacy was assessed using a shortened General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSE); mental health status was assessed using the anxiety/depression item from the EuroQoL questionnaire. SPR in relation to previous self-reported fracture was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Among participants of median age 83.4 (IQR 81.5–85.5) years, SPR was lower for 54.1% of participants, similar for 30.8%, and higher for 15.1%; 74.7% reported no previous fractures. Greater SPR was associated with increased odds of previous fractures when adjusting for sex and age only (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.03–2.87, per higher band of SPR). While further individual adjustment for social isolation (1.73, 1.04–2.89), self-efficacy (1.71, 1.02–2.85), or mental health (1.77, 1.06–2.97) did not attenuate the relationship, individual adjustment for diet quality and number of comorbidities did. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for social isolation, self-efficacy or mental health status did not attenuate the relationship between SPR and fracture. By contrast, lifestyle factors not included in FRAX, such as diet quality, did attenuate relationships, suggesting a possible future area of investigation.