Application of 4-way decomposition to the analysis of placental-fetal biomarkers as intermediary variables between maternal body mass index and birthweight

Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) is a placental hormone measured in pregnancy to predict individual level risk of fetal aneuploidy and other complications; yet may be useful in understanding placental origins of child development more generally. hCG was associated with maternal body mass index (BMI) and with birthweight. The primary aim here was to evaluate hCG as a mediator of maternal BMI effects on birthweight by causal mediation analysis. Subjects were 356 women from 3 U.S. sites (2010–2013). The 4-way decomposition method using med4way (STATA) was applied to screen for 5 types of effects of first trimester maternal BMI on birthweight: the total effect, the direct effect, mediation by hCG, additive interaction of BMI and hCG, and mediation in the presence of an additive interaction. Effect modification by fetal sex was evaluated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the assumption of unmeasured confounding. Additional placental-fetal biomarkers [pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPPA), second trimester hCG, inhibin-A, estriol, alpha fetoprotein] were analyzed for comparison. For first trimester hCG, there was a 0.20 standard deviation increase in birthweight at the 75th vs. 25th percentile of maternal BMI (95% CI 0.04, 0.36). Once stratified, the direct effect association was null in women carrying females. In women carrying males, hCG did not mediate the relationship. In women carrying females, there was a mediated effect of maternal BMI on birthweight by hCG in the reverse direction (−0.06, 95% CI: −0.12, 0.01), and a mediated interaction in the positive direction (0.06, 95% CI 0.00, 0.13). In women carrying males, the maternal BMI effect on birthweight was reverse mediated by PAPPA (−0.09, 95% CI: −0.17, 0.00). Sex-specific mediation was mostly present in the first trimester. Second trimester AFP was a positive mediator of maternal BMI effects in male infants only (0.06, 95% CI: −0.01, 0.13). Effect estimates were robust to potential bias due to unmeasured confounders. These findings motivate research to consider first trimester placental biomarkers and sex-specific mechanisms when quantifying the effects of maternal adiposity on fetal growth.