Forecasting petroleum products consumption in Cameroon's household sector using a sequential GMC(1,n) model optimized by genetic algorithms

Forecasting energy consumption is a major concern for policymakers, oil industry companies, and many other associated businesses. Though there exist many forecasting methodologies, selecting the most appropriate one is critical. GM(1,1) has proven to be one of the most successful forecasting tool. GM(1,1) does not require any specific information and can be adapted to predict energy consumption using a minimum of four observations. Unfortunately, GM(1,1) on its own will generate too large forecast errors because it performs well only when data follow an exponential trend and should be implemented in a political-socio-economic free environment. To reduce these errors, this study proposes a new GM(1,n) convolution model optimized by genetic algorithms integrating a sequential selection mechanism and arc consistency, abbreviated Sequential-GMC(1,n)-GA. Practically, the proposed approach, on one hand, highlights the forecast for petroleum products consumption in Cameroon's household sector. On the other hand, it estimates the amount of CO2 that would be reduced if petroleum products in this sector were switched to clean energy. The new model, like some recent hybrid versions, is robust and reliable, according to the results. Households petroleum products needs by 2025 are estimated to be 150,318 kilo tons of oil equivalent with MAPE of 1.44%, and RMSE of 0.833. Therefore, households GHG emissions would be reduced by 733.85 kilo tons of CO2 equivalent if clean energy was used instead of petroleum products. As a result, the new hybrid model is a valid forecasting tool that can be used to track the growth of Cameroon's household energy demand.