The next big earthquake may inflict a multi-hazard crisis – Insights from COVID-19, extreme weather and resilience in peripheral cities of Israel

The occurrence of a natural disaster in an area already coping with an epidemic, constitutes a multi-hazard event. Such events are more likely than ever during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In regions that seasonally experience extreme-weather disasters, such multi-hazard crises are imminent. People living along the Dead Sea Fault and in the Negev are used to harsh weather conditions and to the hardship of living in isolation. While self-reliance and community-support are often the norm in the daily life of residents in in peripheral communities, in an emergency they may be crucial for survival. Worldwide remote communities with limited response and medical infrastructure and resources may struggle to cope with the aftermath of an earthquake while potentially coping with a concurrent epidemic or extreme weather. In this work we focus on the effect of concurring disasters and seasonal stressors. In particular we discuss how various disasters would affect the Covid-19 infection rate, and we demonstrate that in Israel's periphery cities, heat-stress is a consistent and significant seasonal stressor that would hamper emergency and recovery operations. We also suggest that transient tourist population in these remote cities is expected to burden local emergency efforts and facilities. A seasonal over burden parameter is proposed to describe how seasonal tourism and weather conditions enhance the hardship and risk in a multi-hazard situation. A case study shows that high-resolution spatial analysis of risk and preparedness together with a temporal analysis of seasonal effects, may be used to detect specific neighborhoods with high or low resilience and capacity to cope with disasters. Our work demonstrates the need for spatial and temporal, multi-hazard analysis for improving local resilience and emergency plans in periphery cities and communities exposed to seasonal harsh weather.