Communicating risk: How relevant and irrelevant probabilistic information influences risk perception in medical decision-making

Patients rely on knowing potential risks before accepting medical treatments, but risk perception can be distorted by cognitive biases and irrelevant information. We examined the interactive effects of subjective processes, objective knowledge, and demographic characteristics on how individuals estimate risks when provided with relevant and irrelevant probabilistic information. Participants read medical scenarios describing potential adverse effects associated with declining and accepting preventative treatment, as well as the objective likelihood of experiencing adverse effects associated with one of these two courses of action. We found that the perceived negativity of outcomes influenced perceptions of risk regardless of whether relevant probabilities were available and that the use of affect heuristics to estimate risk increased with age. Introducing objective estimates ameliorated age-related increases in affective distortions. Sensitivity to relevant probabilities increased with greater perceived outcome severity and was greater for men than for women. We conclude that relevant objective information may reduce the propensity to conflate outcome severity with likelihood and that medical judgments of risk vary depending on exposure to relevant and irrelevant probabilities. Implications for how medical professionals should communicate risk information to patients are considered.