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Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat(1). Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use o...

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Autores principales: Eby, Peggy, Peel, Alison J., Hoegh, Andrew, Madden, Wyatt, Giles, John R., Hudson, Peter J., Plowright, Raina K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9768785/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36384167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05506-2
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author Eby, Peggy
Peel, Alison J.
Hoegh, Andrew
Madden, Wyatt
Giles, John R.
Hudson, Peter J.
Plowright, Raina K.
author_facet Eby, Peggy
Peel, Alison J.
Hoegh, Andrew
Madden, Wyatt
Giles, John R.
Hudson, Peter J.
Plowright, Raina K.
author_sort Eby, Peggy
collection PubMed
description During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat(1). Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors(2,3), although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified(4). One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.
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spelling pubmed-97687852022-12-21 Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology Eby, Peggy Peel, Alison J. Hoegh, Andrew Madden, Wyatt Giles, John R. Hudson, Peter J. Plowright, Raina K. Nature Article During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat(1). Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors(2,3), although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified(4). One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-11-16 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9768785/ /pubmed/36384167 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05506-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Eby, Peggy
Peel, Alison J.
Hoegh, Andrew
Madden, Wyatt
Giles, John R.
Hudson, Peter J.
Plowright, Raina K.
Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title_full Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title_fullStr Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title_full_unstemmed Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title_short Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
title_sort pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9768785/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36384167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05506-2
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