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Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa

Climate change is predicted to impact agricultural production and affect food security in poor communities of developing countries due to the likely negative impacts on rainfall characteristics. South Africa is one of the largest producers of maize crops in the Southern African Development Community...

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Autores principales: Matimolane, Selelo, Chikoore, Hector, Mathivha, Fhumulani I., Kori, Edmore
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: AOSIS 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9772745/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36569773
http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v14i1.1165
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author Matimolane, Selelo
Chikoore, Hector
Mathivha, Fhumulani I.
Kori, Edmore
author_facet Matimolane, Selelo
Chikoore, Hector
Mathivha, Fhumulani I.
Kori, Edmore
author_sort Matimolane, Selelo
collection PubMed
description Climate change is predicted to impact agricultural production and affect food security in poor communities of developing countries due to the likely negative impacts on rainfall characteristics. South Africa is one of the largest producers of maize crops in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The majority of crop production is rainfed with precipitation received during the summer growing season. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on maize yields using trend and multiple regression analysis in northern South Africa. Exposure and vulnerability of maize farmers to the impacts of climate change were also evaluated. Rainfall characteristics showed variability of 20.35% with rain days standard deviation of 10.25 days and coefficient of variation of 18.57%. The results revealed a weak relationship between annual rainfall and rainy days, and annual rainfall and maize yields, both showed an r² and p-values of less than 0.5 and 0.005, respectively. The study found that variations in rainfall did not significantly influence variation in maize yields. Despite a clear fluctuation in yields, the results demonstrate a rising trend that can be attributed to agricultural practices such as the use of fertilisers and planting drought resistant cultivars as opposed to climate variables. The study further found that maize producers were proactively adapting to climate change, thus, reducing their vulnerability to its impacts.
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spelling pubmed-97727452022-12-23 Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa Matimolane, Selelo Chikoore, Hector Mathivha, Fhumulani I. Kori, Edmore Jamba Original Research Climate change is predicted to impact agricultural production and affect food security in poor communities of developing countries due to the likely negative impacts on rainfall characteristics. South Africa is one of the largest producers of maize crops in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The majority of crop production is rainfed with precipitation received during the summer growing season. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on maize yields using trend and multiple regression analysis in northern South Africa. Exposure and vulnerability of maize farmers to the impacts of climate change were also evaluated. Rainfall characteristics showed variability of 20.35% with rain days standard deviation of 10.25 days and coefficient of variation of 18.57%. The results revealed a weak relationship between annual rainfall and rainy days, and annual rainfall and maize yields, both showed an r² and p-values of less than 0.5 and 0.005, respectively. The study found that variations in rainfall did not significantly influence variation in maize yields. Despite a clear fluctuation in yields, the results demonstrate a rising trend that can be attributed to agricultural practices such as the use of fertilisers and planting drought resistant cultivars as opposed to climate variables. The study further found that maize producers were proactively adapting to climate change, thus, reducing their vulnerability to its impacts. AOSIS 2022-12-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9772745/ /pubmed/36569773 http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v14i1.1165 Text en © 2022. The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee: AOSIS. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License.
spellingShingle Original Research
Matimolane, Selelo
Chikoore, Hector
Mathivha, Fhumulani I.
Kori, Edmore
Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title_full Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title_fullStr Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title_full_unstemmed Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title_short Maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa
title_sort maize producers’ vulnerability to climate change: evidence from makhuduthamaga local municipality, south africa
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9772745/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36569773
http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v14i1.1165
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