Microcalcifications, mammographic breast density, and risk of breast cancer: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Breast density and microcalcifications are strongly associated with the risk of breast cancer. However, few studies have evaluated the combined association between these two factors and breast cancer risk. We investigated the association between breast density, microcalcifications, and risk of breast cancer. METHODS: This cohort study included 3,910,815 women aged 40–74 years who were screened for breast cancer between 2009 and 2010 and followed up until 2020. The National Health Insurance Service database includes national health-screening results from the national breast cancer screening program, which is an organized screening program provided every 2 years for all women aged 40 years or older. Breast density was assessed based on the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 4(th) edition, mostly through visual assessment by radiologists. The presence or absence of microcalcifications was obtained from the mammographic results. Cox proportional hazard regression for breast cancer risk was used to estimate hazard ratios (aHRs) adjusted for breast cancer risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 58,315 women developed breast cancer during a median follow-up of 10.8 years. Women with breast cancer had a higher proportion of microcalcifications than women without breast cancer (0.9% vs. 0.3%). After adjusting for breast density, women with microcalcification had a 3.07-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.82–3.35) increased risk of breast cancer compared to women without microcalcification. The combined association between microcalcification and breast density dramatically increased the risk of breast cancer, corresponding to a higher level of breast density. Among postmenopausal women, the highest risk group was women with BI-RADS 4 and microcalcification. These women had more than a sevenfold higher risk than women with BI-RADS 1 and non-microcalcification (aHR, 7.26; 95% CI 5.01–10.53). CONCLUSION: Microcalcification is an independent risk factor for breast cancer, and its risk is elevated when combined with breast density. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13058-022-01594-0.