Hesitancy or Resistance? Differential Changes in COVID-19 Vaccination Intention Between Black and White Americans

The literature on COVID-19 vaccination has rarely taken a macro and longitudinal approach to investigate the nuanced racial and ethnic differences in vaccine hesitancy and refusal. To fill this gap, this study examines the relationships between race, time, and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal using state-level data from the US Census Household Pulse Survey, 2020 US Decennial Census, and other sources (i.e., American Community Survey, Human Development Index database, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Four longitudinal Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) were estimated to analyze how time-variant and time-invariant measures, and time itself influenced COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal rates, controlling for the effect of other relevant covariates. The results provide descriptive evidence that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy had decreased in the USA, but vaccine refusal remained stable between January and October 2021. The GEEs further indicated that the proportion of the Black population was positively associated with both vaccine hesitancy and refusal rates, while the proportion of the White population was positively associated with the vaccine refusal rate but not associated with the vaccine hesitancy rate. In addition, over the 10-month period, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal in the Black population declined rapidly, but vaccine refusal in the White population stayed fairly stable. More research and practical efforts are needed to understand and inform the public about these important but overlooked trends.