Constructing and Verifying an Alexithymia Risk-Prediction Model for Older Adults with Chronic Diseases Living in Nursing Homes: A Cross-Sectional Study in China

Alexithymia is a critical global public health concern. This questionnaire-based cross-sectional study explored the risk factors of alexithymia in older adults living in nursing homes with chronic diseases. It also developed and evaluated an alexithymia risk-prediction model. A total of 203 older adults with chronic diseases were selected from seven nursing homes in Changsha, China, using simple random and cluster sampling. The participants were surveyed using the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), Geriatric Depression Scale-15 (GDS-15), Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC), Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS), and a socio-demographic characteristics questionnaire. The alexithymia total score was 43.85 ± 9.570, with an incidence rate of 8.9%. Alexithymia had a partial mediating effect on the relationship between social support and psychological resilience (the effect value was 0.12), accounting for 19.04% of the total effect. Gender, depression, and psychological resilience were the main independent influencing factors of alexithymia (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve of the risk-prediction model was 0.770. The participants, especially those who were male and depressed, exhibited a certain degree of alexithymia. Additionally, it partially mediated the association between social support and psychological resilience, which is a protective factor against alexithymia. The risk-prediction model showed good accuracy and discrimination. Hence, it can be used for preliminary screening of alexithymia in older adults with chronic diseases living in nursing homes.