Post-2018 Ethiopia: state fragility, failure, or collapse?

Owing to the multifaceted problems in which Ethiopia has been embroiled, such as war, displacement, and humanitarian crisis, writers arbitrarily use terms such as “state fragility,” “state failure,” and “state collapse” to represent the situation. This paper intends to determine what these concepts mean and to analyze whether post-2018 Ethiopia can be characterized by state fragility, failure, or collapse. To this end, I use a qualitative approach in which I gathered relevant data mainly from secondary sources. Accordingly, the study shows that state fragility, state failure, and state collapse are concepts related to the capacity and ability of the state to exercise a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence and perform its basic functions well. State fragility occurs if the state fails to exercise a monopoly on violence, protect its citizens, provide adequate public services, and maintain legitimacy. State failure, on the other hand, occurs when these problems become more critical, challenging the state’s existence. Finally, state collapse occurs when a state is completely disintegrated, leaving an authority vacuum. Based on this understanding, my findings indicate that Ethiopia is currently in a fragile condition and has started the process of descent into state failure. This apparent weakness of the state has devastating implications for the region, given the country’s previous stabilizing role, large population, and shared border with other regional states, among others. I argue that unless the necessary actions are taken, the situation might become worse and further destabilize an already volatile region.