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A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, includi...

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Autores principales: Gunning, Christian E., Morrison, Amy C., Okamoto, Kenichi W., Scott, Thomas W., Astete, Helvio, Vásquez, Gissella M., Gould, Fred, Lloyd, Alun L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9778528/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36548248
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863
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author Gunning, Christian E.
Morrison, Amy C.
Okamoto, Kenichi W.
Scott, Thomas W.
Astete, Helvio
Vásquez, Gissella M.
Gould, Fred
Lloyd, Alun L.
author_facet Gunning, Christian E.
Morrison, Amy C.
Okamoto, Kenichi W.
Scott, Thomas W.
Astete, Helvio
Vásquez, Gissella M.
Gould, Fred
Lloyd, Alun L.
author_sort Gunning, Christian E.
collection PubMed
description The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.
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spelling pubmed-97785282022-12-23 A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru Gunning, Christian E. Morrison, Amy C. Okamoto, Kenichi W. Scott, Thomas W. Astete, Helvio Vásquez, Gissella M. Gould, Fred Lloyd, Alun L. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time. Public Library of Science 2022-12-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9778528/ /pubmed/36548248 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Gunning, Christian E.
Morrison, Amy C.
Okamoto, Kenichi W.
Scott, Thomas W.
Astete, Helvio
Vásquez, Gissella M.
Gould, Fred
Lloyd, Alun L.
A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title_full A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title_fullStr A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title_full_unstemmed A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title_short A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru
title_sort critical assessment of the detailed aedes aegypti simulation model skeeter buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in iquitos, peru
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9778528/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36548248
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863
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