A Study on the Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Production in China’s Major Grain-Producing Provinces

Food self-sufficiency in a large country with 1.4 billion people is very important for the Chinese government, especially in the context of COVID-19 and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatial–temporal evolution and driving factors of non-grain production in thirteen major grain-producing provinces in China, which account for more than 75% of China’s grain production, using 2011–2020 prefecture-level statistics. In the present study, the research methodology included GIS spatial analysis, hot spot analysis, and spatial Durbin model (SDM). The findings of this study are as follows: (1) The regions with a higher level of non-grain production were mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Sichuan, while the regions with a low level of non-grain production were mainly distributed in the Northeast Plain. The regions with a higher proportion of grain production to the national total grain production were concentrated in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain, and the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Plain of China. The hot spot regions with changes in non-grain production levels were mainly distributed in the Sichuan region and Alashan League City in Inner Mongolia, and the cold spot regions were mainly distributed in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and other regions. (2) An analysis of the SDM indicated that the average air temperature among the natural environment factors, the ratio of the sum of gross secondary and tertiary industries to GDP, the ratio of gross primary industry to the GDP of economic development level, the urbanization rate of social development, and the difference in disposable income per capita between urban and rural residents of the urban–rural gap showed positive spatial spillover effects. The grain yield per unit of grain crop sown area of grain production resource endowment, the total population of social development, and the area sown to grain crops per capita of grain production resource endowment all showed negative spatial spillover effects. The research results of this paper can provide a reference for the country to carry out the governance of non-grain production and provide a reference for China’s food security guarantee.