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COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the r...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779244/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36554833 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953 |
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author | Bertin, Karine Garzón, Johanna San Martín, Jaime Torres, Soledad |
author_facet | Bertin, Karine Garzón, Johanna San Martín, Jaime Torres, Soledad |
author_sort | Bertin, Karine |
collection | PubMed |
description | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the rest of the world in no more than 3 months. Several studies have tried to model the behavior of COVID-19 in diverse regions, based on differential equations of the SIR and stochastic SIR type, and their extensions. In this article, a statistical analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in eleven different cities in Europe and America is conducted. Log-linear models are proposed to model the rise or drop in the number of positive cases reported daily. A classification analysis of the estimated slopes is performed, allowing a comparison of the eleven cities at different epidemic peaks. By rescaling the curves, similar behaviors among rises and drops in different cities are found, independent of socioeconomic conditions, type of quarantine measures taken, whether more or less restrictive. The log-linear model appears to be suitable for modeling the incidence of COVID-19 both in rises and drops. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9779244 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97792442022-12-23 COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas Bertin, Karine Garzón, Johanna San Martín, Jaime Torres, Soledad Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the rest of the world in no more than 3 months. Several studies have tried to model the behavior of COVID-19 in diverse regions, based on differential equations of the SIR and stochastic SIR type, and their extensions. In this article, a statistical analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in eleven different cities in Europe and America is conducted. Log-linear models are proposed to model the rise or drop in the number of positive cases reported daily. A classification analysis of the estimated slopes is performed, allowing a comparison of the eleven cities at different epidemic peaks. By rescaling the curves, similar behaviors among rises and drops in different cities are found, independent of socioeconomic conditions, type of quarantine measures taken, whether more or less restrictive. The log-linear model appears to be suitable for modeling the incidence of COVID-19 both in rises and drops. MDPI 2022-12-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9779244/ /pubmed/36554833 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Bertin, Karine Garzón, Johanna San Martín, Jaime Torres, Soledad COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title | COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title_full | COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title_fullStr | COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title_short | COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas |
title_sort | covid-19: a comparative study of contagions peaks in cities from europe and the americas |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779244/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36554833 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953 |
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