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COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the r...

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Autores principales: Bertin, Karine, Garzón, Johanna, San Martín, Jaime, Torres, Soledad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779244/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36554833
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953
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author Bertin, Karine
Garzón, Johanna
San Martín, Jaime
Torres, Soledad
author_facet Bertin, Karine
Garzón, Johanna
San Martín, Jaime
Torres, Soledad
author_sort Bertin, Karine
collection PubMed
description Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the rest of the world in no more than 3 months. Several studies have tried to model the behavior of COVID-19 in diverse regions, based on differential equations of the SIR and stochastic SIR type, and their extensions. In this article, a statistical analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in eleven different cities in Europe and America is conducted. Log-linear models are proposed to model the rise or drop in the number of positive cases reported daily. A classification analysis of the estimated slopes is performed, allowing a comparison of the eleven cities at different epidemic peaks. By rescaling the curves, similar behaviors among rises and drops in different cities are found, independent of socioeconomic conditions, type of quarantine measures taken, whether more or less restrictive. The log-linear model appears to be suitable for modeling the incidence of COVID-19 both in rises and drops.
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spelling pubmed-97792442022-12-23 COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas Bertin, Karine Garzón, Johanna San Martín, Jaime Torres, Soledad Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the rest of the world in no more than 3 months. Several studies have tried to model the behavior of COVID-19 in diverse regions, based on differential equations of the SIR and stochastic SIR type, and their extensions. In this article, a statistical analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in eleven different cities in Europe and America is conducted. Log-linear models are proposed to model the rise or drop in the number of positive cases reported daily. A classification analysis of the estimated slopes is performed, allowing a comparison of the eleven cities at different epidemic peaks. By rescaling the curves, similar behaviors among rises and drops in different cities are found, independent of socioeconomic conditions, type of quarantine measures taken, whether more or less restrictive. The log-linear model appears to be suitable for modeling the incidence of COVID-19 both in rises and drops. MDPI 2022-12-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9779244/ /pubmed/36554833 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Bertin, Karine
Garzón, Johanna
San Martín, Jaime
Torres, Soledad
COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title_full COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title_fullStr COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title_short COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas
title_sort covid-19: a comparative study of contagions peaks in cities from europe and the americas
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779244/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36554833
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416953
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