Carbon Emissions Trading and Green Technology Innovation—A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on a Carbon Trading Market Pilot

Carbon emissions trading policy has received widespread attention from scholars as a core policy tool to reduce carbon emissions. While most scholars have previously focused on the carbon emission reduction effect, this paper investigates the impact of carbon emissions trading policy on green technology innovation using a differences-in-differences method based on provincial panel data from 2005–2019, using a carbon emissions trading pilot as a quasi-natural experiment. The findings show that the policy can significantly promote green technology innovation, but with a lagged effect, and this finding still holds in the robustness test. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the stronger the human capital, the stronger the intellectual property protection and the stronger the marketization with better policy effects. In addition, carbon emissions trading policy can indirectly affect green technology innovation by influencing research investment.