Estimated COVID-19 severe cases and deaths averted in the first year of the vaccination campaign in Brazil: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND: A nationwide Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination campaign was initiated in Brazil in January 2021 with CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca) followed by BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer–BioNTech) and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson–Janssen) vaccines. Here we provide estimates of the number of severe cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) averted during the first year of the mass vaccination campaign in Brazil. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19-related illness and death were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and used to estimate the direct effects of the vaccination campaign on the number of severe cases and deaths due to COVID-19 occurring between January 17, 2021 and January 31, 2022. To this end, we compared the daily age-specific rates between the unvaccinated population and the “at least partly vaccinated” population (received at least one dose of a two-dose vaccine), as well as other two vaccination subgroups, “fully vaccinated” (completed the one- or two-dose vaccine schedule), and “boosted-vaccinated” (fully vaccinated and recipients of booster dose) populations. FINDINGS: We estimated that 74% (n = 875,846; 95% confidence interval, CI 843,383–915,709) of total expected cases of severe COVID-19 and 82% (n = 303,129; 95% CI 284,019–321,681) of total expected deaths due to COVID-19 were averted in the first year of the national vaccination campaign. The averted burden was heterogeneous between age groups and higher in the more populous states. However, outcome rate differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups were higher in the less populated states. INTERPRETATION: The first year of the COVID-19 vaccination program in Brazil saved the lives of at least 303,129 adults. The results highlight the need for future vaccination campaigns, including those required in the current pandemic, to rapidly achieve high uptake, particularly among the elderly and residents of the least populous regions. FUNDING: 10.13039/501100006506Ministry of Health (Brazil).