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Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the n...

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Autores principales: Sharma, Yogita, Bennett, Jared B., Rašić, Gordana, Marshall, John M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779664/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36508463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010755
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author Sharma, Yogita
Bennett, Jared B.
Rašić, Gordana
Marshall, John M.
author_facet Sharma, Yogita
Bennett, Jared B.
Rašić, Gordana
Marshall, John M.
author_sort Sharma, Yogita
collection PubMed
description Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance.
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spelling pubmed-97796642022-12-23 Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes Sharma, Yogita Bennett, Jared B. Rašić, Gordana Marshall, John M. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance. Public Library of Science 2022-12-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9779664/ /pubmed/36508463 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010755 Text en © 2022 Sharma et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sharma, Yogita
Bennett, Jared B.
Rašić, Gordana
Marshall, John M.
Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title_full Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title_fullStr Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title_full_unstemmed Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title_short Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
title_sort close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779664/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36508463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010755
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