Integrating Spatial Heterogeneity into an Analysis between Ecosystem Service Value and Its Driving Factors: A Case Study of Dalian, China

Human demand for natural resources has grown, leading to ecological debasement and related ecological system administration. Using Dalian as an example, we estimated the changes in the ecosystem service value (ESV) in 2005 and 2020. We used ArcGIS and spatial statistics to conduct estimations and change analyses of the ESV. Based on the results of the ESV, the geographical detector and geographically weighted regression (GWR) elucidated the contributions of different driving factors of the ESV in a 2 km grid. In summary, these results indicated that: (1) from a holistic perspective, the ESV of Dalian fell by 206.8009 billion CNY over 15 years, and the hot spots were concentrated in both the northern and the western parts, whereas the cold spots were distributed in the central part; (2) according to the results from the geographical detector, land use structure factors influenced the ESV most significantly, followed by socio-economic factors, and the impact of natural factors was relatively small; and (3) according to the results of the GWR, land use structure factors negatively affected the ESV, and the positive impact of the proportion of the natural land area was the most obvious. We conclude that the decline in the ESV reflects the impact of human activities on the ecosystem in the studied landscape. Understanding ESV changes should be made a priority in ecosystem management, and evaluating ESV drivers can contribute to developing land use strategies for policy-making.