Temperature-Dependent Development Models Describing the Effects of Temperature on the Development of the Fall Armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Spodoptera frugiperda is an important agricultural pest of several plants; therefore, a reliable method is required for predicting its emergence in fields. Temperature-dependent development and thermal bio parameters are among approaches that are commonly used to model insect phenology. However, information regarding S. frugiperda is limited. In this study, we evaluated the fitness of S. frugiperda at various constant temperatures. The results of this study indicated that a temperature range of 28–30 °C was optimal for the fitness of S. frugiperda. Among the seven models evaluated in this study, the Shi model best described the relationship between temperature and the development rate of S. frugiperda. Estimating thermal thresholds and selecting appropriate models are crucial for effective decision-making regarding S. frugiperda control. ABSTRACT: The fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is an economically important pest that recently invaded Africa and Asia; however, information regarding its biological capacity to establish itself in newly invaded environments is largely unknown. We investigated the effects of temperature on the development and survival of the invaded populations of S. frugiperda and selected mathematical models to evaluate its development in a new environment. S. frugiperda exhibited optimum survival and growth at temperatures between 28 °C and 30 °C. The lower and upper thermal thresholds for the egg-to-adult life cycle were 13.51 °C and 34.13 °C, respectively. We compared seven mathematical models and found that the Shi model was the most suitable for describing the temperature-dependent development rate of S. frugiperda. Therefore, the Shi mathematical model may be used to predict both the occurrence of particular developmental stages and the geographic distribution to implement measures for the management of S. frugiperda in agricultural fields.