A Predictive Model for Dysphagia after Ventilator Liberation in Severe Pneumonia Patients Receiving Tracheostomy: A Single-Center, Observational Study

The main purpose of this study was to develop a model predictive of dysphagia in hospital survivors with severe pneumonia who underwent tracheostomy during their hospital stay. The present study included 175 patients (72% male; mean age, 71.3 years) over 5 years. None of these patients had a history of deglutition disorder before hospital admission. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors predicting dysphagia at hospital discharge. Dysphagia scores were calculated from β-coefficients and by assigning points to variables. Of the enrolled patients, 105 (60%) had dysphagia at hospital discharge. Factors prognostic of dysphagia at hospital discharge included being underweight (body mass index < 18.5 kg/m(2)), non-participation in a dysphagia therapy program, mechanical ventilation ≥ 15 days, age ≥ 74 years, and chronic neurologic diseases. Underweight and non-participation in a dysphagia therapy program were assigned +2 points and the other factors were assigned +1 point. Dysphagia scores showed acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for dysphagia 0.819, 95% confidence interval: 0.754–0.873, p < 0.001) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square = 9.585, with df 7 and p = 0.213). The developed dysphagia score was predictive of deglutition disorder at hospital discharge in tracheostomized patients with severe pneumonia.