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Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China

As the major energy bases, numerous coal cities in China are facing severe challenges in terms of resources and environment. In order to overcome the disadvantages of static evaluation, this study selected Huainan city, a typical coal city in China, as the case, and combined with the improved SD (sy...

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Autores principales: Bao, Keyu, He, Gang, Ruan, Jun, Zhu, Yanna, Hou, Xiaoyu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9788658/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36564687
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24715-w
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author Bao, Keyu
He, Gang
Ruan, Jun
Zhu, Yanna
Hou, Xiaoyu
author_facet Bao, Keyu
He, Gang
Ruan, Jun
Zhu, Yanna
Hou, Xiaoyu
author_sort Bao, Keyu
collection PubMed
description As the major energy bases, numerous coal cities in China are facing severe challenges in terms of resources and environment. In order to overcome the disadvantages of static evaluation, this study selected Huainan city, a typical coal city in China, as the case, and combined with the improved SD (system dynamics) model, analyzed its RECC (resource and environmental carrying capacity) systematically and dynamically. Firstly, a SD model of RECC system including resource-environment and society-economy subsystem was constructed. Then, the control parameters were determined objectively according to the analysis results of BP-DEMATAL model. Thirdly, we designed 18 simulation scenarios based on orthogonal test to dynamically predict the development trend of RECC in different conditions. Results show that: (1) From 2019 to 2030, the RECC of Huainan is generally on the rise. (2) In all simulation scenarios, test 12 is the most effective way of improving RECC. (3) The factors with the greatest influence on the simulation results are GDP, output value of secondary production, total expending on environmental protection, and coal production. This study provides a reference for the analysis method of RECC and the sustainable development of coal cities.
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spelling pubmed-97886582022-12-27 Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China Bao, Keyu He, Gang Ruan, Jun Zhu, Yanna Hou, Xiaoyu Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Research Article As the major energy bases, numerous coal cities in China are facing severe challenges in terms of resources and environment. In order to overcome the disadvantages of static evaluation, this study selected Huainan city, a typical coal city in China, as the case, and combined with the improved SD (system dynamics) model, analyzed its RECC (resource and environmental carrying capacity) systematically and dynamically. Firstly, a SD model of RECC system including resource-environment and society-economy subsystem was constructed. Then, the control parameters were determined objectively according to the analysis results of BP-DEMATAL model. Thirdly, we designed 18 simulation scenarios based on orthogonal test to dynamically predict the development trend of RECC in different conditions. Results show that: (1) From 2019 to 2030, the RECC of Huainan is generally on the rise. (2) In all simulation scenarios, test 12 is the most effective way of improving RECC. (3) The factors with the greatest influence on the simulation results are GDP, output value of secondary production, total expending on environmental protection, and coal production. This study provides a reference for the analysis method of RECC and the sustainable development of coal cities. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-12-23 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9788658/ /pubmed/36564687 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24715-w Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bao, Keyu
He, Gang
Ruan, Jun
Zhu, Yanna
Hou, Xiaoyu
Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title_full Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title_fullStr Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title_full_unstemmed Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title_short Analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of Huainan, China
title_sort analysis on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coal city based on improved system dynamics model: a case study of huainan, china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9788658/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36564687
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24715-w
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