Cargando…

A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks

This study proposes a new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks by categorizing infected people into non-vaccinated, first dose-vaccinated, and second dose-vaccinated groups and exploring the transmission dynamics of the disease outbreaks. We present...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Shyamsunder, Bhatter, S., Jangid, K., Abidemi, A., Owolabi, K.M., Purohit, S.D.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9789549/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2022.100156
_version_ 1784858979923394560
author Shyamsunder
Bhatter, S.
Jangid, K.
Abidemi, A.
Owolabi, K.M.
Purohit, S.D.
author_facet Shyamsunder
Bhatter, S.
Jangid, K.
Abidemi, A.
Owolabi, K.M.
Purohit, S.D.
author_sort Shyamsunder
collection PubMed
description This study proposes a new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks by categorizing infected people into non-vaccinated, first dose-vaccinated, and second dose-vaccinated groups and exploring the transmission dynamics of the disease outbreaks. We present a non-linear integer order mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics and modify it by introducing Caputo fractional derivative operator. We start by proving the good state of the model and then calculating its reproduction number. The Caputo fractional-order model is discretized by applying a reliable numerical technique. The model is proven to be stable. The classical model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of daily reported cases during the vaccination regime in India between 01 August 2021 and 21 July 2022. We explore the sensitivities of the reproduction number with respect to the model parameters. It is shown that the effective transmission rate and the recovery rate of unvaccinated infected individuals are the most sensitive parameters that drive the transmission dynamics of the pandemic in the population. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed fractional mathematical model via the memory index at different values of [Formula: see text] and 1. We discuss the epidemiological significance of the findings and provide perspectives on future health policy tendencies. For instance, efforts targeting a decrease in the transmission rate and an increase in the recovery rate of non-vaccinated infected individuals are required to ensure virus-free population. This can be achieved if the population strictly adhere to precautionary measures, and prompt and adequate treatment is provided for non-vaccinated infectious individuals. Also, given the ongoing community spread of COVID-19 in India and almost the pandemic-affected countries worldwide, the need to scale up the effort of mass vaccination policy cannot be overemphasized in order to reduce the number of unvaccinated infections with a view to halting the transmission dynamics of the disease in the population.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9789549
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-97895492022-12-27 A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks Shyamsunder Bhatter, S. Jangid, K. Abidemi, A. Owolabi, K.M. Purohit, S.D. Decision Analytics Journal Article This study proposes a new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks by categorizing infected people into non-vaccinated, first dose-vaccinated, and second dose-vaccinated groups and exploring the transmission dynamics of the disease outbreaks. We present a non-linear integer order mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics and modify it by introducing Caputo fractional derivative operator. We start by proving the good state of the model and then calculating its reproduction number. The Caputo fractional-order model is discretized by applying a reliable numerical technique. The model is proven to be stable. The classical model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of daily reported cases during the vaccination regime in India between 01 August 2021 and 21 July 2022. We explore the sensitivities of the reproduction number with respect to the model parameters. It is shown that the effective transmission rate and the recovery rate of unvaccinated infected individuals are the most sensitive parameters that drive the transmission dynamics of the pandemic in the population. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed fractional mathematical model via the memory index at different values of [Formula: see text] and 1. We discuss the epidemiological significance of the findings and provide perspectives on future health policy tendencies. For instance, efforts targeting a decrease in the transmission rate and an increase in the recovery rate of non-vaccinated infected individuals are required to ensure virus-free population. This can be achieved if the population strictly adhere to precautionary measures, and prompt and adequate treatment is provided for non-vaccinated infectious individuals. Also, given the ongoing community spread of COVID-19 in India and almost the pandemic-affected countries worldwide, the need to scale up the effort of mass vaccination policy cannot be overemphasized in order to reduce the number of unvaccinated infections with a view to halting the transmission dynamics of the disease in the population. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. 2023-03 2022-12-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9789549/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2022.100156 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Shyamsunder
Bhatter, S.
Jangid, K.
Abidemi, A.
Owolabi, K.M.
Purohit, S.D.
A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title_full A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title_fullStr A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title_short A new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks
title_sort new fractional mathematical model to study the impact of vaccination on covid-19 outbreaks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9789549/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2022.100156
work_keys_str_mv AT shyamsunder anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT bhatters anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT jangidk anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT abidemia anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT owolabikm anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT purohitsd anewfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT shyamsunder newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT bhatters newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT jangidk newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT abidemia newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT owolabikm newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks
AT purohitsd newfractionalmathematicalmodeltostudytheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19outbreaks