The associations between changes in hepatic steatosis and heart failure and mortality: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a well-known risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) and mortality. However, whether the progression or regression of NAFLD can increase or decrease the risk of heart failure (HF) and mortality has not been fully evaluated. We investigated the association between changes in hepatic steatosis and the risks of incident HF (iHF), hospitalization for HF (hHF), and mortality including CV- or liver-related mortality. METHODS: Using a database from the National Health Insurance Service in Korea from January 2009 to December 2012, we analyzed 240,301 individuals who underwent health check-ups at least twice in two years. Hepatic steatosis was assessed using the fatty liver index (FLI), with an FLI ≥ 60 considered to indicate the presence of hepatic steatosis. According to FLI changes, participants were divided into four groups. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Persistent hepatic steatosis increased the risk of iHF, hHF, and mortality including CV- and liver-related mortality compared with the group that never had steatosis (all P < 0.05). Incident hepatic steatosis was associated with increased risk for iHF and mortality including CV- or liver-related mortality (all P < 0.05). Compared with persistent steatosis, regression of hepatic steatosis was associated with decreased risk for iHF, hHF, and liver-related mortality (iHF, HR [95% CI], 0.800 [0.691–0.925]; hHF, 0.645 [0.514–0.810]; liver-related mortality, 0.434 [0.223–0.846]). CONCLUSIONS: FLI changes were associated with increased or decreased risk of HF outcomes and mortality. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01725-z.