Direct cost of cochlear implants in Germany – a strategic simulation

BACKGROUND: Despite the current undersupply of cochlear implants (CIs) with simultaneously increasing indication, CI implantation numbers in Germany still are at a relatively low level. METHODS: As there are hardly any solid forecasts available in the literature, we develop a System Dynamics model that forecasts the number and costs of CI implantations in adults for 40 years from a social health insurance (SHI) perspective. RESULTS: CI demand will grow marginally by demographic changes causing average annual costs of about 538 million €. Medical-technical progress with following relaxed indication criteria and patients’ increasing willingness for implantation will increase implantation numbers significantly with average annual costs of 765 million €. CONCLUSION: CI demand by adults will increase in the future, thus will the costs for CI supply. Continuous research and development in CI technology and supply is crucial to ensure long-term financing of the growing CI demand through cost-reducing innovations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13561-022-00405-8.