Development and validation of the prognostic model based on autophagy-associated genes in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic progressive interstitial lung disease. Many studies suggest that autophagy may be related to disease progression and prognosis in IPF. However, the mechanisms involved have not been fully elucidated. METHODS: We incorporated 232 autophagy-associated genes (AAGs) and two datasets, GSE28042 and GSE27957, from the GEO database. Univariate Cox analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to construct the autophagy-associated prognostic model. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analyses were performed to investigate the functions of these autophagy-associated genes. CIBERSORT algorithm was used to calculate the immune cell infiltration between patients in the high-risk score and low-risk score groups. Quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed to explore the mRNA expression of five genes in the autophagy-associated risk model. RESULTS: We constructed a 5-autophagy-associated genes signature based on Univariate Cox analysis and LASSO regression. In our autophagy-associated risk model, IPF patients in the high-risk group demonstrated a poor overall survival rate compared to patients in the low-risk group. For 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates, the AUC predictive value of the AAG signature was 0.670, 0.787, and 0.864, respectively. These results were validated in the GSE27957 cohort, confirming the good prognostic effect of our model. GO and KEGG pathway analyses enriched immune-related pathways between the high-risk and low-risk groups. And there was also a significant difference in immune cell infiltration between two groups. And the results of qRT-PCR showed that the expression levels of FOXO1, IRGM, MYC, and PRKCQ were significantly decreased in the Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell (PBMC) of IPF patient samples. CONCLUSION: Our study constructed and validated an autophagy-associated risk model based on MYC, MAPK1, IRGM, PRKCQ, and FOXO1. And those five genes may influence the progression of IPF by regulating immune responses and immune cells.