Thermal and pH stability of Justicia spicigera (Mexican honeysuckle) pigments: Application of mathematical probabilistic models to predict pigments stability

Kinetic and probabilistic (Time-to-Failure, TTF) models were used to predict the color (L*, a*, b* total color differences (ΔE), Hue and Chroma) stability of Justicia spicigera leaves pigments subjected to different temperatures (40 – 80 °C) and pHs (2 – 12). The change in pH caused different hues (from 60° = orange red to 268° = deep-blue) due to the shift effect of anthocyanins in the extract. Temperatures higher than 60 °C increased the color degradation. High heat sensitivity was observed at pH 4 (Ea = 90.27) and 10 (Ea = 154.99 kJ/mol). The Time-to-Failure model for both ΔE and Hue describes the effect of pH and temperature in the J. spicigera extracts. High pHs and temperatures applied to the extracts increased the probability of showing ΔEs > 4 or Hue changes over 20 %. Nearby the neutral region of pH, pigments of J. spicigera were more stable. The TTF model might be a useful tool to describe and predict the behavior of pigments added to foods.