After Chondroplasty, Patient Election to Proceed With Cartilage Transplantation Is Closely and Additively Associated With Preoperative AMADEUS (Area Measurement And DEpth Underlying Structure) Grade, Condylar Involvement, Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Pain Score, and Veterans Rand 12-Item Health Survey Physical Score

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors for patient election to proceed with cartilage transplant after staging chondroplasty. METHODS: This study retrospective reviewed patients prospectively enrolled at the time of staging chondroplasty, with early election defined as patient decision to proceed to cartilage transplantation within 6 months of chondroplasty. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to determine univariate predictors of conversion, and a predictive calculator, the Cartilage Early Return for Transplant score, was formulated using stepwise regression employing the Akaike information criterion. Receiver operator curves and the area under the curve were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the final model on the studied patient population. RESULTS: Sixty-five knees (63 patients) were evaluated, with an overall transplant election rate of 27.7% within 6 months after chondroplasty. Based on multivariate results, the final Akaike information criterion–driven Cartilage Early Return for Transplant score employed preoperative Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Pain Score, Veterans Rand 12-Item Health Survey Physical Score, condylar involvement, and AMADEUS (Area Measurement And DEpth Underlying Structure) score to generate a 0- to 7-point risk-stratification system with a 3% early election to proceed to transplant risk in the 0- to 2-point score group, 33% risk in the 3- to 4-point group, and 79% risk in the 5+-point group (P < .01) and an overall AUC of 0.906 (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Risk of early patient election to pursue cartilage transplantation after chondroplasty is closely and additively associated with preoperative AMADEUS grade, condylar involvement, Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Pain Score, and Veterans Rand 12-Item Health Survey Physical Score. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Understanding risk factors for conversion to cartilage transplantation may improve preoperative planning and counseling prior to staging chondroplasty.