Risk of incident heart failure after COVID-19 recovery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Patients recovered from COVID-19 have an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease and heart structural changes. The aim of the present manuscript is to assess the risk of incident heart failure (HF) after COVID-19 infection. Data were obtained searching MEDLINE and Scopus for all studies published at any time up to September 1, 2022 reporting the risk of incident HF in COVID-19 recovered patients. The cumulative post-COVID-19 incidence and risk of incident HF were pooled using a random effects model and presented with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical heterogeneity was measured using the Higgins I(2) statistic. Overall, 21,463,173 patients (mean age 54.5 years, 58.7% males) were analyzed. Among them, 1,628,424 had confirmed COVID-19 infection while the remaining 19,834,749 represented the controls. The mean length of follow-up was 9.2 months. A random effect model revealed a pooled incidence of post COVID-19 HF in 1.1% of cases (95% CI: 0.7–1.6, I(2): 99.8%). Moreover, recovered COVID-19 patients showed an increased risk of incident HF (HR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.54–3.24, p < 0.0001, I(2) = 96.5%) in the same follow-up period. Meta-regression showed a direct relationship for the risk of incident HF using age (p = 0.001) and hypertension (HT) (p = 0.02) as moderators, while an inverse association was observed when the follow-up length was adopted as moderating variable (p = 0.01). COVID-19 survivors had an additional 90% risk of developing HF after COVID-19 infection in the long-term period. This risk was directly related with age and previous history of HT especially in the early post-acute phase of the infection. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10741-022-10292-0.