A tumor microenvironment preoperative nomogram for prediction of lymph node metastasis in bladder cancer

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests that tumor metastasis necessitates multi-step microenvironmental regulation. Lymph node metastasis (LNM) influences both pre- and post-operative bladder cancer (BLCA) treatment strategies. Given that current LNM diagnosis methods are still insufficient, we intend to investigate the microenvironmental changes in BLCA with and without LNM and develop a prediction model to confirm LNM status. METHOD: "Estimation of Stromal and Immune cells in Malignant Tumors using Expression data" (ESTIMATE) algorithm was used to characterize the tumor microenvironment pattern of TCGA-BLCA cohort, and dimension reduction, feature selection, and StrLNM signature construction were accomplished using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. StrLNM signature was combined with the genomic mutation to establish an LNM nomogram by using multivariable logistic regression. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in terms of calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. The testing set from the TCGA-BLCA cohort was used for internal validation. Moreover, three independent cohorts were used for external validation, and BLCA patients from our cohort were also used for further validation. RESULTS: The StrLNM signature, consisting of 22 selected features, could accurately predict LNM status in the TCGA-BLCA cohort and several independent cohorts. The nomogram performed well in discriminating LNM status, with the area under curve (AUC) of 75.1% and 65.4% in training and testing datasets from the TCGA-BLCA cohort. Furthermore, the StrLNM nomogram demonstrated good calibration with p >0.05 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the StrLNM nomogram had a high potential for clinical utility. Additionally, 14 of 22 stably expressed genes were identified by survival analysis and confirmed by qPCR in BLCA patient samples in our cohort. CONCLUSION: In summary, we developed a nomogram that included an StrLNM signature and facilitated the preoperative prediction of LNM status in BLCA patients.