The stochastic world of emerging viruses

The acquisition of new hosts is a fundamental mechanism by which parasitic organisms expand their host range and perpetuate themselves on an evolutionary scale. Among pathogens, viruses, due to their speed of evolution, are particularly efficient in producing new emergence events. However, even though these phenomena are particularly important to the human species and therefore specifically studied, the processes of virus emergence in a new host species are very complex and difficult to comprehend in their entirety. In order to provide a structured framework for understanding emergence in a species (including humans), a comprehensive qualitative model is an indispensable cornerstone. This model explicitly describes all the stages necessary for a virus circulating in the wild to come to the crossing of the epidemic threshold. We have therefore developed a complete descriptive model explaining all the steps necessary for a virus circulating in host populations to emerge in a new species. This description of the parameters presiding over the emergence of a new virus allows us to understand their nature and importance in the emergence process.