Quantifying the relative contributions of habitat modification and mammalian predators on landscape-scale declines of a threatened river specialist duck

Habitat modification and introduced mammalian predators are linked to global species extinctions and declines, but their relative influences can be uncertain, often making conservation management difficult. Using landscape-scale models, we quantified the relative impacts of habitat modification and mammalian predation on the range contraction of a threatened New Zealand riverine duck. We combined 38 years of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos) observations with national-scale environmental data to predict relative likelihood of occurrence (RLO) under two scenarios using bootstrapped boosted regression trees (BRT). Our models used training data from contemporary environments to predict the potential contemporary whio distribution across New Zealand riverscapes in the absence of introduced mammalian predators. Then, using estimates of environments prior to human arrival, we used the same models to hindcast potential pre-human whio distribution prior to widespread land clearance. Comparing RLO differences between potential pre-human, potential contemporary and observed contemporary distributions allowed us to assess the relative impacts of the two main drivers of decline; habitat modification and mammalian predation. Whio have undergone widespread catastrophic declines most likely linked to mammalian predation, with smaller declines due to habitat modification (range contractions of 95% and 37%, respectively). We also identified areas of potential contemporary habitat outside their current range that would be suitable for whio conservation if mammalian predator control could be implemented. Our approach presents a practical technique for estimating the relative importance of global change drivers in species declines and extinctions, as well as providing valuable information to improve conservation planning.