Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone, Age, and Tumor Size are Risk Factors for Progression During Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma in Adults

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) was initiated at Kuma Hospital in 1993 and is gradually spreading worldwide. We assessed the effect of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels on PTMC enlargement in patients on AS. METHODS: We enrolled 2705 patients with cytologically diagnosed PTMC who had undergone AS between January 2005 and July 2019. Patients with Graves disease were excluded. The median AS period was 5.5 years (range 1.0–15.7 years). Tumor enlargement was defined as a size increase ≥3 mm. Chi-square test, Kaplan–Meier method, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazard, and logistic regression were used to compare variables. RESULTS: Ninety-two patients (3.4%) experienced tumor enlargement; the 5-, 10-, and 15-year enlargement rates were 3.0%, 5.5%, and 6.2%, respectively. Young age (<40 years, p < 0.001), large tumor size (≥9 mm, p = 0.017), and high detailed TSH score (≥3, higher than the lower normal limit, p = 0.011) were significant factors relating to tumor enlargement in the multivariate analysis. In a subset of patients aged <40 years, a low detailed TSH score (<3) was an independent factor against tumor enlargement (p = 0.039). Only 22 patients (0.8%) experienced novel lymph node metastasis; the 5-, 10-, and 15-year node metastasis rates were very low, at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Young patients with PTMC are more likely to experience tumor growth. Mild TSH suppression to achieve a low normal range may prevent carcinoma enlargement; however, prospective studies are needed to draw more reliable conclusions.