A comparative total cost of ownership analysis of heavy duty on-road and off-road vehicles powered by hydrogen, electricity, and diesel

This study investigated the cost competitiveness, using total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in heavy duty on and off-road fleet applications as a key enabler in the decarbonisation of the transport sector and compares results to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Assessments were carried out for a present day (2021) scenario, and a sensitivity analysis assesses the impact of changing input parameters on FCEV TCO. This identified conditions under which FCEVs become competitive. A future outlook is also carried out examining the impact of time-sensitive parameters on TCO, when net zero targets are to be reached in the UK and EU. Several FCEVs are cost competitive with ICEVs in 2021, but not BEVs, under base case conditions. However, FCEVs do have potential to become competitive with BEVs under specific conditions favouring hydrogen, including the application of purchase grants and a reduced hydrogen price. By 2050, a number of FCEVs running on several hydrogen scenarios show a TCO lower than ICEVs and BEVs using rapid chargers, but for the majority of vehicles considered, BEVs remain the lowest in cost, unless specific FCEV incentives are implemented. This paper has identified key factors hindering the deployment of hydrogen and conducted comprehensive TCO analysis in heavy duty on and off-road fleet applications. The output has direct contribution to the decarbonisation of the transport sector.