Latent trajectory modelling of pulmonary artery pressure in systemic sclerosis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To visualise the trajectories of pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and identify the clinical phenotypes for each trajectory, by applying latent trajectory modelling for PAP repeatedly estimated by echocardiography. METHODS: This was a multicentre, retrospective cohort study conducted at four referral hospitals in Kyoto, Japan. Patients with SSc who were treated at study sites between 2008 and 2021 and who had at least three echocardiographic measurements of systolic PAP (sPAP) were included. A group-based trajectory model was applied to the change in sPAP over time, and patients were classified into distinct subgroups that followed similar trajectories. Pulmonary hypertension (PH)-free survival was compared for each trajectory. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed for baseline clinical characteristics associated with trajectory assignment. RESULTS: A total of 236 patients with 1097 sPAP measurements were included. We identified five trajectories: rapid progression (n=9, 3.8%), early elevation (n=30, 12.7%), middle elevation (n=54, 22.9%), late elevation (n=24, 10.2%) and low stable (n=119, 50.4%). The trajectories, in the listed order, showed progressively earlier elevation of sPAP and shorter PH-free survival. In the multinomial logistic regression analysis with the low stable as a reference, cardiac involvement was associated with rapid progression, diffuse cutaneous SSc was associated with early elevation and anti-centromere antibody was associated with middle elevation; older age of onset was associated with all three of these trajectories. CONCLUSION: The pattern of changes in PAP over time in SSc can be classified into five trajectories with distinctly different clinical characteristics and outcomes.