Estimating the health impact of delayed elective care during the COVID -19 pandemic in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the continuity of healthcare provision. Appointments, treatments and surgeries for non-COVID patients were often delayed, with associated health losses for patients involved. OBJECTIVE: To develop a method to quantify the health impact of delayed elective care for non-COVID patients. METHODS: A model was developed that estimated the backlog of surgical procedures in 2020 and 2021 using hospital registry data. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from the literature to estimate the non-generated QALYs related to the backlog. In sensitivity analyses QALY values were varied by type of patient prioritization. Scenario analyses for future increased surgical capacity were performed. RESULTS: In 2020 and 2021 an estimated total of 305,374 elective surgeries were delayed. These delays corresponded with 319,483 non-generated QALYs. In sensitivity analyses where QALYs varied by type of patient prioritization, non-generated QALYs amounted to 150,973 and 488,195 QALYs respectively. In scenario analyses for future increased surgical capacity in 2022–2026, the non-generated QALYs decreased to 311,220 (2% future capacity increase per year) and 300,710 (5% future capacity increase per year). Large differences exist in the extent to which different treatments contributed to the total health losses. CONCLUSIONS: The method sheds light on the indirect harm related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results can be used for policy evaluations of COVID-19 responses, in preparations for future waves or other pandemics and in prioritizing the allocation of resources for capacity increases.