Screening fundus photography predicts and reveals risk factors for glaucoma conversion in eyes with large optic disc cupping

This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for glaucoma conversion and progression in eyes with large optic disc cupping without retinal nerve fiber layer defect (RNFLD). Five hundred forty-two eyes of 271 subjects who had a vertical cup-to-disc ratio (CDR) ≥ 0.6 without RNFLD were enrolled. Characteristics for optic disc configuration (including CDR, vertical cupping, ISNT rule, disc ovality, peripapillary atrophy [PPA]-to-disc area [DA] ratio, and lamina cribrosa pore visibility) and blood vessels (including central retinal vessel trunk [CRVT] nasalization, bayoneting of vessels, baring of circumlinear vessels, history of disc hemorrhage [DH] and vessel narrowing/sclerotic change) were evaluated. From a median follow-up of 11.3 years, 26.6% of eyes (n = 144) developed RNFLD within a median of 5.1 years. Baseline factors, including vertical CDR ≥ 0.7 (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.12), vertical cupping (HR = 1.93), ISNT rule violation (HR = 2.84), disc ovality ≥ 1.2 (HR = 1.61), PPA-to-DA ratio ≥ 0.4 (HR = 1.77), CRVT nasalization ≥ 60% (HR = 1.77), vessel narrowing/sclerotic change (HR = 2.13), DH history (HR = 5.60), and baseline intraocular pressure ≥ 14 mmHg (HR = 1.70) were significantly associated with glaucoma conversion (all Ps < 0.05). An HR-matched scoring system based on initial fundus photography predicted glaucoma conversion with specificity of 90.4%. Careful examination of the optic nerve head and vascular structures can help to predict the risk of glaucoma conversion in eyes with large optic disc cupping.